AROC · Energy(natural gas transmission) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Archrock, Inc. reported revenue of $1.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 7.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 5.8% in 2017 to 39.5%, and it earned 11.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $2.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 89.8% went back into the business and 27.6% to dividends; the share count rose 150.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of -0.07 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.5B+7.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin39.5%gross margin —
Return on invested capital11.5%7.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay100.6M6.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.8×net debt 2.4B
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2017Revenue 794.7MOperating income 46.1M
2018
2018Revenue 904.4MOperating income 128.6M
2019Revenue 965.5MOperating income 163.1M
2020Revenue 875.0MOperating income 19.7M
2021Revenue 781.5MOperating income 147.1M
2022Revenue 845.6MOperating income 161.8M
2023Revenue 990.3MOperating income 253.7M
2024Revenue 1.2BOperating income 356.0M
2025Revenue 1.5BOperating income 589.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+20.8%
+11.2%
+7.2%
Operating income
+53.8%
+97.2%
+32.7%
Net income
+93.8%
—
+37.0%
Earnings per share
+85.5%
—
+23.7%
Free cash flow per share
—
-11.9%
—
Dividend per share
+11.2%
+6.6%
+5.8%
Shares
+4.4%
+3.0%
+10.8%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-20%0%20%40%
2017Operating 5.8%Net 2.4%Free cash flow -2.5%
2018
2018Operating 14.2%Net 2.3%Free cash flow -10.3%
2019Operating 16.9%Net 10.1%Free cash flow -9.8%
2020Operating 2.3%Net -7.8%Free cash flow 22.3%
2021Operating 18.8%Net 3.6%Free cash flow 17.9%
2022Operating 19.1%Net 5.2%Free cash flow -4.3%
2023Operating 25.6%Net 10.6%Free cash flow 1.2%
2024Operating 30.8%Net 14.9%Free cash flow 6.1%
2025Operating 39.5%Net 21.6%Free cash flow 8.0%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.1%
0%5%10%15%
2017Return on invested capital 5.1%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 4.5%
2019Return on invested capital 2.8%
2020Return on invested capital 0.9%
2021Return on invested capital 4.4%
2022Return on invested capital 4.9%
2023Return on invested capital 7.6%
2024Return on invested capital 7.5%
2025Return on invested capital 11.5%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200M-100M0100M200M
2017Economic profit -45.4M
2018
2018Economic profit -63.8M
2019Economic profit -85.3M
2020Economic profit -163.7M
2021Economic profit -66.5M
2022Economic profit -53.7M
2023Economic profit 11.9M
2024Economic profit 12.3M
2025Economic profit 170.1M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
21.6%
Return on assets
7.4%
Asset turnover
0.34×
Overheads (SG&A)
9.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M0200M400M
2017Net income 19.0MFree cash flow -20.0MAfter stock-based pay -28.5M
2018
2018Net income 21.1MFree cash flow -93.2MAfter stock-based pay -100.5M
2019Net income 97.3MFree cash flow -95.1MAfter stock-based pay -103.2M
2020Net income -68.4MFree cash flow 195.0MAfter stock-based pay 184.4M
2021Net income 28.2MFree cash flow 139.5MAfter stock-based pay 128.2M
2022Net income 44.3MFree cash flow -36.4MAfter stock-based pay -48.3M
2023Net income 105.0MFree cash flow 11.6MAfter stock-based pay -1.4M
2024Net income 172.2MFree cash flow 70.6MAfter stock-based pay 55.9M
2025Net income 322.3MFree cash flow 119.6MAfter stock-based pay 100.6M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
2.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 90%2.6B
Acquisitions 7%214.0M
Dividends 28%787.1M
Share buybacks 4%105.7M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -29%-815.3M
Over the same years it paid 104.4M in stock. The share count rose 150.9%. 1.3M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$1$0$1$2
2017Earnings per share $0.27Free cash flow per share $-0.29Dividend per share $0.49
2018
2018Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $-0.85Dividend per share $0.53
2019Earnings per share $0.71Free cash flow per share $-0.69Dividend per share $0.57
2020Earnings per share $-0.45Free cash flow per share $1.29Dividend per share $0.59
2021Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $0.92Dividend per share $0.59
2022Earnings per share $0.29Free cash flow per share $-0.24Dividend per share $0.59
2023Earnings per share $0.68Free cash flow per share $0.07Dividend per share $0.62
2024Earnings per share $1.06Free cash flow per share $0.43Dividend per share $0.68
2025Earnings per share $1.84Free cash flow per share $0.68Dividend per share $0.81
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
50M100M150M200M
2017Diluted shares 69.7M
2018
2018Diluted shares 109.4M
2019Diluted shares 137.5M
2020Diluted shares 150.8M
2021Diluted shares 151.8M
2022Diluted shares 153.4M
2023Diluted shares 154.3M
2024Diluted shares 162.4M
2025Diluted shares 174.8M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01B2B3B
2017Net debt 1.4B
2018
2018Net debt 1.5B
2019Net debt 859.3M
2020Net debt 1.7B
2021Net debt 1.5B
2022Net debt 1.5B
2023Net debt 1.6B
2024Net debt 2.2B
2025Net debt 2.4B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.8×
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.54 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 35d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.07distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.02 × 6.56+0.16
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.52 × 3.26-1.69
Operating income ÷ assets 0.14 × 6.72+0.91
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.52 × 1.05+0.55
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.56below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.83+0.77
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 1.27+0.51
Sales growth 1.29+1.15
Slower depreciation 0.84+0.10
Overheads vs sales 0.83-0.14
Profit not in cash -0.07-0.32
Leverage rising 0.96-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$5.47discounted at 7.1% a year · 67% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
3.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
4.0×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.3×
Free cash flow yield
10.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.1B
Everything after, today2.2B
The whole business3.4B
Minus net debt-2.4B
What belongs to shareholders955.9M
Divided among 174.8M shares: <strong>$5.47</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200M-100M0100M200M300M
2017Reported -28.5M
2018
2018Reported -100.5M
2019Reported -103.2M
2020Reported 184.4M
2021Reported 128.2M
2022Reported -48.3M
2023Reported -1.4M
2024Reported 55.9M
2025Reported 100.6M
2026Projected 117.7M
2027Projected 129.5M
2028Projected 141.3M
2029Projected 152.8M
2030Projected 163.9M
2031Projected 174.1M
2032Projected 183.4M
2033Projected 191.5M
2034Projected 198.1M
2035Projected 203.0M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.7B
1.8B
2.0B
2.1B
2.3B
2.4B
2.6B
2.7B
2.8B
2.9B
Growth
11.0%
10.1%
9.1%
8.2%
7.2%
6.3%
5.3%
4.4%
3.4%
2.5%
Cash margin
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
Free cash flow
117.7M
129.5M
141.3M
152.8M
163.9M
174.1M
183.4M
191.5M
198.1M
203.0M
Worth today
109.8M
112.8M
114.9M
116.0M
116.1M
115.1M
113.2M
110.3M
106.5M
101.8M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.1%
6
8
11
15
19
6.6%
4
6
8
11
14
7.1%
2
4
5
7
10
7.6%
1
2
4
5
7
8.1%
-0
1
2
3
5
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
5.7%
-0
1
2
4
5
6.4%
1
2
4
5
7
7.1%
2
4
5
7
9
7.8%
4
5
7
9
11
8.5%
5
7
9
11
13
All the inputs moving at once
4,997 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-1.72
Median$5.41
90th percentile$17.45
$0.00$20.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$1.37</b> and <b>$10.92</b>; one in ten below $-1.72, one in ten above $17.45.
Does the long run make sense?
2.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 2.8 times that year's EBITDA.
3%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 76% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 3% on the new capital — it has earned 7% on average over the last five years.
67%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 4 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$11.9M5 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.