AIRO · Industrials(aircraft) · 3 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Airo Group Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $90.9 million in fiscal 2025. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 21.71 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 4 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 202590.9M
Operating margin-31.6%gross margin 59.9%
Return on invested capital5.4%0.7% on average over 2 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-55.4M-61.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash72.9M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score3/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
2-for-1 before fiscal 2025.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-50M050M100M
2023
2024Revenue 86.9MOperating income -17.4M
2025Revenue 90.9MOperating income -28.8M
202320242025
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
-5%0%5%10%15%
2023
2024Return on invested capital -4.0%
2025Return on invested capital 5.4%
202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-100M-75M-50M-25M0
2023
2024Economic profit -82.0M
2025Economic profit -35.7M
202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-0.6%
Return on assets
-0.5%
Asset turnover
0.12×
Research & development
19.7% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
64.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-60M-40M-20M020M40M
2023
2024Net income -38.7MFree cash flow 20.7MAfter stock-based pay 20.0M
2025Net income -4.1MFree cash flow -35.5MAfter stock-based pay -55.4M
202320242025
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$3,000-$2,000-$1,000$0$1,000$2,000
2023
2024Earnings per share $-2,361.26Free cash flow per share $1,262.95
2025Earnings per share $-173.33Free cash flow per share $-1,499.54
202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
16,00018,00020,00022,00024,000
2023
2024Diluted shares 16,387
2025Diluted shares 23,678
202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-75M-50M-25M025M
2023
2024Net debt 7.8M
2025Net debt -72.9M
202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
4.3×
Interest coverage
-7× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
3.45 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✕Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zerofailed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
21.71safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.56+0.64
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.27 × 3.26-0.89
Operating income ÷ assets -0.04 × 6.72-0.25
Equity ÷ liabilities 21.15 × 1.05+22.21
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.35below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.12+0.59
Soft assets 0.92+0.37
Sales growth 1.05+0.93
Slower depreciation 1.13+0.13
Overheads vs sales 3.08-0.53
Profit not in cash 0.04+0.17
Leverage rising 0.29-0.10
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Inventory is growing 32% against revenue growing 5%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (-4M against -32M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
Capital spending (3M) is well below depreciation (12M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
Net debt is 4.3 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$7,349.86discounted at 10.2% a year · 48% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
—
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.1×
Free cash flow yield
-31.8%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today52.1M
Everything after, today49.1M
The whole business101.2M
Plus net cash72.9M
What belongs to shareholders174.0M
Divided among 23,678 shares: <strong>$7,349.86</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-60M-40M-20M020M
2023
2024Reported 20.0M
2025Reported -55.4M
2026Projected 7.7M
2027Projected 7.9M
2028Projected 8.2M
2029Projected 8.4M
2030Projected 8.6M
2031Projected 8.9M
2032Projected 9.1M
2033Projected 9.3M
2034Projected 9.6M
2035Projected 9.8M
2023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
93.6M
96.4M
99.2M
102.0M
104.8M
107.7M
110.5M
113.4M
116.3M
119.2M
Growth
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
8.2%
Free cash flow
7.7M
7.9M
8.2M
8.4M
8.6M
8.9M
9.1M
9.3M
9.6M
9.8M
Worth today
7.0M
6.5M
6.1M
5.7M
5.3M
4.9M
4.6M
4.3M
4.0M
3.7M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
7,483
7,716
7,984
8,293
8,656
9.7%
7,213
7,415
7,644
7,906
8,210
10.2%
6,976
7,152
7,350
7,575
7,833
10.7%
6,761
6,915
7,088
7,282
7,503
11.2%
6,570
6,706
6,858
7,027
7,218
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
6.6%
6,180
6,438
6,717
7,017
7,339
7.4%
6,444
6,729
7,035
7,365
7,721
8.2%
6,705
7,015
7,350
7,710
8,098
9.0%
6,966
7,302
7,664
8,054
8,475
9.9%
7,230
7,592
7,982
8,403
8,856
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$6,135.43
Median$7,361.85
90th percentile$9,021.28
$6,000.00$8,000.00$10,000.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$6,671.84</b> and <b>$8,139.49</b>; one in ten below $6,135.43, one in ten above $9,021.28.
Does the long run make sense?
48%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 13.24% × (1 − 35.0%) = <strong>8.61%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 2 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$696,7148 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (aircraft) first, then the rest of industrials.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
