Advance Auto Parts Inc

AAP · Consumer discretionary (retail-auto & home supply stores) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-03

Signed in, this page also says what this company is inside your own portfolio: its weight, its share of your risk, and what buying or selling some of it would change. Sign in ›

Advance Auto Parts Inc reported revenue of $8.6 billion in fiscal 2026, after shrinking 1.3% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 7.0% in 2019 to -0.5%, and it earned -2.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $4.0 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 62.7% went to buybacks and 47.1% back into the business; the share count fell 14.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.09 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.

Revenue, fiscal 2026 8.6B -1.3% a year over 9 years

Operating margin -0.5% gross margin 43.4%

Return on invested capital -2.1% -7.7% on average over 3 years

Free cash flow after stock pay -334.0M -3.9% of revenue

Net debt ÷ EBITDA 1.3× net debt 289.0M

Piotroski F-score 4/9 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income

Compound growth a year
	3 yrs	5 yrs	9 yrs
Revenue	—	—	-1.3%
Net income	—	—	-23.4%
Earnings per share	—	—	-22.1%
Dividend per share	—	—	+17.0%
Shares	—	—	-1.8%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

    GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
    
  

Return on invested capital

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity: 2.0%
Return on assets: 0.4%
Asset turnover: 0.73×
Overheads (SG&A): 41.5% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2019–2026

4.0B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

Reinvested in the business 47% 1.9B
Acquisitions 0% 0
Dividends 22% 899.7M
Share buybacks 63% 2.5B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -32% -1.3B

Over the same years it paid 311.3M in stock. The share count fell 14.8%. 2.2B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

    Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
    
  

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

Debt and liquidity

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt

Net debt ÷ EBITDA: 1.3×
Interest coverage: — operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio: 1.75 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle: 66 days collects in 16d, stock 273d, pays in 223d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

4of 9 tests passed

ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero failed
Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before passed
Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) failed
Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell failed
More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before passed
No new sharesShare count did not grow failed
Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before passed
Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before failed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

3.09safe zone

Working capital ÷ assets 0.26 × 6.56+1.73
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.35 × 3.26+1.14
Operating income ÷ assets -0.00 × 6.72-0.02
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.23 × 1.05+0.24

Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.87below the -1.78 line

Receivables vs sales 0.74+0.68
Gross margin slipping 0.86+0.46
Soft assets 0.90+0.36
Sales growth 0.95+0.84
Slower depreciation 1.02+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.99-0.17
Profit not in cash 0.01+0.04
Leverage rising 1.07-0.35

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (44M against -46M).

Benign

Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.

Worrying

Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.

The effective tax rate is -174.7%.

Benign

A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.

Worrying

Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue

Starting revenue

M $

revenue of fiscal 2026

Growth in year one

revenue grew -3.3% a year over the last 2 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

Years until it settles

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale

Free cash flow margin today

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

Margin in the last year

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

Count stock-based pay as a costIt is paid in shares instead of cash, and shareholders bear it through dilution. Most free cash flow figures leave it out.

The long run

Growth after that, forever

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate

Risk-free rate

10-year US Treasury par yield (U.S. Treasury), 2026-09-28

Beta

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

Equity risk premium

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

Cost of debt, before tax

no interest line: the risk-free rate + 1.5 points

Tax rate

effective rate in the last fiscal year, -174.7%, kept within 0–35%

The price

Share price

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Changed a director or officer

Event 2026-05-22

Published the results of a shareholder vote

Changed a director or officer; published information for investors

Results 2026-02-13

Reported results

Estimatein 48d

Results for the period ending 2026-10-13

What its own directors and officers did

Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.

Bought on the open market—none in the period

Sold on the open market—none in the period

Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier

Other lines65 awards · 0 option exercises · 1 tax withholdings

Date	Who	What	Shares	Price	Value	Holds after
18 Sep 2026	Okelly Shane MDirector, President and CEO	Shares withheld for taxes	11,437	$42.55	$486,644	203,270
24 Jul 2026	Seboldt Thomas WDirector	Received as an award	45	$55.80	$2,492	15,903
24 Jul 2026	Bailo Carla JeanDirector	Received as an award	65	$55.80	$3,639	15,327
24 Jul 2026	Ferraro John FrancisDirector	Received as an award	119	$55.80	$6,619	27,207
24 Jul 2026	Hilson Joan MDirector	Received as an award	58	$55.80	$3,235	12,997
24 Jul 2026	Smith Gregory LDirector	Received as an award	43	$55.80	$2,419	9,720

A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (retail-auto & home supply stores) first, then the rest of consumer discretionary.

ORLY O Reilly Automotive Inc AZO Autozone Inc AMZN Amazon Com Inc TSLA Tesla, Inc.HD Home Depot, Inc.DIS Walt Disney Co MCD Mcdonalds Corp TJX TJX Companies Inc

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures

	2019	2021	2022	2022	2023	2023	2023	2023	2024	2026
Size
Revenue	9.7B	10.1B	11.0B	9.1B	—	—	—	9.2B	9.1B	8.6B
Revenue growth	—	+4.1%	+8.8%	-16.8%	—	—	—	—	-1.2%	-5.4%
Operating income	677.2M	749.9M	822.4M	524.6M	—	—	—	39.0M	-713.0M	-43.0M
Net income	486.9M	493.0M	596.6M	464.4M	—	—	—	30.0M	-336.0M	44.0M
Margins
Gross margin	43.8%	44.3%	44.8%	46.3%	—	—	—	41.9%	37.5%	43.4%
Operating margin	7.0%	7.4%	7.5%	5.7%	—	—	—	0.4%	-7.8%	-0.5%
Net margin	5.0%	4.9%	5.4%	5.1%	—	—	—	0.3%	-3.7%	0.5%
Free cash flow margin	6.1%	6.9%	7.4%	3.7%	—	—	—	0.7%	-1.1%	-3.5%
R&D ÷ revenue	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A ÷ revenue	36.8%	36.9%	37.3%	40.5%	—	—	—	41.3%	41.9%	41.5%
Cash
Free cash flow	596.8M	702.1M	817.4M	337.8M	—	—	—	61.0M	-96.0M	-298.0M
Stock-based pay	37.4M	45.3M	63.1M	46.5M	—	—	—	41.0M	42.0M	36.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay	559.3M	656.8M	754.3M	291.3M	—	—	—	20.0M	-138.0M	-334.0M
Free cash flow to the firm	485.2M	602.5M	774.7M	329.3M	—	—	—	887.5M	-541.0M	-399.1M
Free cash flow ÷ net income	1.2×	1.4×	1.4×	0.7×	—	—	—	2.0×	0.3×	-6.8×
Capex ÷ revenue	2.8%	2.6%	2.6%	4.4%	—	—	—	2.5%	2.0%	2.9%
Returns
Return on invested capital	12.0%	12.4%	15.2%	10.3%	—	—	—	1.2%	-22.3%	-2.1%
Return on equity	13.7%	13.9%	19.4%	17.9%	—	—	—	1.2%	-15.5%	2.0%
Return on assets	4.3%	4.2%	4.9%	3.9%	—	—	—	0.2%	-3.1%	0.4%
Asset turnover	0.9×	0.9×	0.9×	0.8×	—	—	—	0.8×	0.8×	0.7×
Economic profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Per share
Earnings per share	$6.84	$7.14	$9.25	$7.65	—	—	—	$0.50	$-5.61	$0.73
Free cash flow per share	$8.39	$10.18	$12.67	$5.56	—	—	—	$1.02	$-1.60	$-4.92
Dividend per share	$0.24	$0.82	$2.49	$5.54	—	—	—	$3.51	$1.00	$0.99
Payout ratio	3.5%	11.4%	27.0%	72.4%	—	—	—	696.7%	—	136.4%
Book value per share	$51.26	$53.30	$49.70	$43.85	—	—	—	$42.34	$36.17	$36.63
Diluted shares	71.2M	69.0M	64.5M	60.7M	—	—	—	59.6M	59.9M	60.6M
Balance sheet
Net debt	328.7M	198.0M	446.3M	1.1B	—	—	—	1.3B	-80.0M	289.0M
Net debt ÷ EBITDA	0.4×	0.2×	0.4×	1.4×	—	—	—	4.2×	0.2×	1.3×
Interest coverage	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Current ratio	1.3×	1.3×	1.2×	1.1×	1.2×	1.2×	1.2×	1.2×	1.3×	1.7×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	94	85	68	81	—	—	—	49	35	66
Scores
Piotroski F-score	—	6	8	5	1	1	0	3	4	4
Altman Z''	2.69	2.88	2.60	2.18	—	—	—	2.07	1.98	3.09
Beneish M	—	-2.64	-2.68	-2.70	—	—	—	—	-2.79	-2.87

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.