USNA · Health care(medicinal chemicals & botanical products) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-03
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Usana Health Sciences Inc reported revenue of $925.3 million in fiscal 2026, after shrinking 1.4% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 12.7% in 2017 to 4.0%. Of the $942.1 million its operations generated over 10 years, 65.2% went to buybacks and 22.3% to acquisitions; the share count fell 24.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 7.37 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 2026925.3M-1.4% a year over 9 years
Operating margin4.0%gross margin 78.3%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay-5.3M-0.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2017Revenue 1.0BOperating income 132.5M
2018Revenue 1.2BOperating income 188.4M
2019Revenue 1.1BOperating income 146.2M
2021
2021Revenue 1.1BOperating income 176.5M
2022Revenue 1.2BOperating income 170.2M
2022Revenue 998.6MOperating income 107.6M
2023Revenue 921.0MOperating income 93.1M
2024Revenue 854.5MOperating income 66.3M
2026Revenue 925.3MOperating income 37.4M
2017201820192021202120222022202320242026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-2.5%
-4.0%
-1.4%
Operating income
-29.7%
-26.7%
-13.1%
Net income
-46.3%
-38.7%
-17.8%
Earnings per share
-45.6%
-37.1%
-15.1%
Free cash flow per share
-54.4%
-41.7%
-22.4%
Shares
-1.3%
-2.7%
-3.1%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%5%10%15%
2017
2018
2019
2021
2021
2022
2022
2023
2024
2026
2017201820192021202120222022202320242026
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
2.0%
Return on assets
1.4%
Asset turnover
1.25×
Research & development
1.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
36.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-50M050M100M150M
2017Net income 62.5MFree cash flow 110.6MAfter stock-based pay 95.1M
2018Net income 126.2MFree cash flow 140.7MAfter stock-based pay 125.7M
2019Net income 100.5MFree cash flow 110.2MAfter stock-based pay 94.6M
2021
2021Net income 124.7MFree cash flow 145.3MAfter stock-based pay 130.9M
2022Net income 116.5MFree cash flow 108.5MAfter stock-based pay 94.2M
2022Net income 69.3MFree cash flow 93.5MAfter stock-based pay 80.2M
2023Net income 63.8MFree cash flow 56.1MAfter stock-based pay 41.6M
2024Net income 42.0MFree cash flow 50.9MAfter stock-based pay 36.4M
2026Net income 10.8MFree cash flow 8.5MAfter stock-based pay -5.3M
2017201820192021202120222022202320242026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
942.1M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 13%117.9M
Acquisitions 22%209.9M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 65%614.2M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 0%228,000
Over the same years it paid 131.0M in stock. The share count fell 24.8%. 483.2M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$2$4$6$8
2017Earnings per share $2.53Free cash flow per share $4.47
2018Earnings per share $5.12Free cash flow per share $5.71
2019Earnings per share $4.41Free cash flow per share $4.83
2021
2021Earnings per share $5.86Free cash flow per share $6.84
2022Earnings per share $5.73Free cash flow per share $5.33
2022Earnings per share $3.59Free cash flow per share $4.84
2023Earnings per share $3.30Free cash flow per share $2.90
2024Earnings per share $2.19Free cash flow per share $2.66
2026Earnings per share $0.58Free cash flow per share $0.46
2017201820192021202120222022202320242026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
18M20M22M24M26M
2017Diluted shares 24.7M
2018Diluted shares 24.6M
2019Diluted shares 22.8M
2021
2021Diluted shares 21.3M
2022Diluted shares 20.3M
2022Diluted shares 19.3M
2023Diluted shares 19.3M
2024Diluted shares 19.2M
2026Diluted shares 18.6M
2017201820192021202120222022202320242026
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
44× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.24 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
7.37safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.22 × 6.56+1.41
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.63 × 3.26+2.04
Operating income ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.72+0.34
Equity ÷ liabilities 3.40 × 1.05+3.57
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.54below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.04+0.55
Soft assets 0.97+0.39
Sales growth 1.08+0.97
Slower depreciation 0.52+0.06
Overheads vs sales 1.18-0.20
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.07
Leverage rising 0.93-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Inventory is growing 47% against revenue growing 8%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
Capital spending (14M) is well below depreciation (33M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$10.09discounted at 10.2% a year · 46% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
17.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
2.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.2×
Free cash flow yield
-2.8%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today101.9M
Everything after, today85.5M
The whole business187.4M
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders187.4M
Divided among 18.6M shares: <strong>$10.09</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-50M050M100M150M
2017Reported 95.1M
2018Reported 125.7M
2019Reported 94.6M
2021
2021Reported 130.9M
2022Reported 94.2M
2022Reported 80.2M
2023Reported 41.6M
2024Reported 36.4M
2026Reported -5.3M
2027Projected 17.7M
2028Projected 17.2M
2029Projected 16.7M
2030Projected 16.4M
2031Projected 16.2M
2032Projected 16.2M
2033Projected 16.2M
2034Projected 16.4M
2035Projected 16.7M
2036Projected 17.1M
2017201920212022202420272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
888.2M
859.1M
837.2M
821.8M
812.7M
809.5M
812.2M
820.8M
835.4M
856.3M
Growth
-4.0%
-3.3%
-2.6%
-1.8%
-1.1%
-0.4%
0.3%
1.1%
1.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Free cash flow
17.7M
17.2M
16.7M
16.4M
16.2M
16.2M
16.2M
16.4M
16.7M
17.1M
Worth today
16.1M
14.1M
12.5M
11.1M
10.0M
9.0M
8.2M
7.5M
6.9M
6.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
10
11
12
12
13
9.7%
10
10
11
11
12
10.2%
9
10
10
11
11
10.7%
9
9
10
10
10
11.2%
8
9
9
9
10
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
1.6%
7
8
9
9
10
1.8%
8
9
9
10
11
2.0%
9
9
10
11
12
2.2%
9
10
11
12
13
2.4%
10
11
12
13
14
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$1.09
Median$10.07
90th percentile$20.37
$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$5.33</b> and <b>$15.34</b>; one in ten below $1.09, one in ten above $20.37.
Does the long run make sense?
3.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 3.5 times that year's EBITDA.
10%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 24% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 10% on the new capital.
46%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 35.0%) = <strong>4.38%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (medicinal chemicals & botanical products) first, then the rest of health care.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.