SphinxRisk

Ubiquiti Inc.

UI · Technology (radio & tv broadcasting & communications equipment) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-06-30

Ubiquiti Inc. reported revenue of $3.3 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 15.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 33.5% in 2017 to 36.2%, and it earned 66.8% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $4.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 62.2% went to buybacks and 25.0% to dividends; the share count fell 27.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 11.33 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.

Revenue, fiscal 2026 3.3B +15.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin 36.2% gross margin 46.2%
Return on invested capital 66.8% 68.8% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay 901.5M 27.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA Net cash 522.6M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score 4/9 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue+19.0%+11.5%+15.9%
Operating income+29.6%+9.8%+16.9%
Net income+33.1%+9.3%+15.7%
Earnings per share+33.0%+10.1%+19.9%
Free cash flow per share—+9.8%+31.7%
Dividend per share+10.0%+14.9%—
Shares+0.1%-0.8%-3.5%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital Cost of capital today · 10.2%

Economic profit

Economic profit

(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.

Return on equity
66.7%
Return on assets
43.7%
Asset turnover
1.49×
Research & development
6.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
3.7% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026

4.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 5% 195.7M
  • Acquisitions 0% 0
  • Dividends 25% 1.0B
  • Share buybacks 62% 2.6B
  • Kept, or used to pay down debt 8% 330.7M

Over the same years it paid 44.1M in stock. The share count fell 27.2%. 2.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.4×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.93 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
106 days collects in 34d, stock 162d, pays in 89d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

4of 9 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) failed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell failed
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before passed
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow failed
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before passed
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before failed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

11.33safe zone
  • Working capital ÷ assets 0.55 × 6.56+3.60
  • Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.64 × 3.26+2.10
  • Operating income ÷ assets 0.54 × 6.72+3.62
  • Equity ÷ liabilities 1.90 × 1.05+2.00

Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.10below the -1.78 line
  • Receivables vs sales 0.97+0.89
  • Gross margin slipping 0.94+0.50
  • Soft assets 0.87+0.35
  • Sales growth 1.27+1.13
  • Slower depreciation 1.15+0.13
  • Overheads vs sales 0.86-0.15
  • Profit not in cash 0.01+0.07
  • Leverage rising 0.59-0.19

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2026

%

revenue grew +11.5% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

no interest line: the risk-free rate + 1.5 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 18.8%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

Value per share, with these assumptions $302.63 discounted at 10.2% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
$232.9980% of 5,000 simulations$404.90
Cautious $197.50 7.5% growth · 24.1% margin · 11.2% discount · 2.0% forever
Your assumptions $302.63 11.5% growth · 28.4% margin · 10.2% discount · 2.5% forever
Generous $487.54 15.5% growth · 32.7% margin · 9.2% discount · 3.0% forever

Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.

What the value implies, in the usual multiples

At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings19.1×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA14.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue5.4×
Free cash flow yield4.9%

From cash flows to a value per share

10 years of cash flow, today8.6B
Everything after, today9.2B
The whole business17.8B
Plus net cash522.6M
What belongs to shareholders18.3B

Divided among 60.6M shares: <strong>$302.63</strong> each.

The projection next to its history

Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.

ReportedProjected
Year by year
2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Revenue3.7B4.0B4.4B4.8B5.2B5.5B5.8B6.0B6.3B6.4B
Growth11.5%10.5%9.5%8.5%7.5%6.5%5.5%4.5%3.5%2.5%
Cash margin28.4%28.4%28.4%28.4%28.4%28.4%28.4%28.4%28.4%28.4%
Free cash flow1.0B1.1B1.3B1.4B1.5B1.6B1.6B1.7B1.8B1.8B
Worth today941.2M943.9M938.1M923.8M901.3M871.2M834.2M791.2M743.2M691.4M

If the least-known inputs move

Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.

The discount rate and growth forever

discount ↓ · forever →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
9.2% 312 330 349 372 399
9.7% 293 307 324 343 366
10.2% 275 288 303 319 338
10.7% 260 271 284 298 314
11.2% 246 256 267 279 293

Year-one growth and the final margin

margin ↓ · growth →7.5%9.5%11.5%13.5%15.5%
22.7% 221 239 257 277 299
25.6% 240 259 280 302 326
28.4% 259 280 303 327 353
31.2% 278 301 325 351 379
34.1% 297 322 348 376 406

All the inputs moving at once

5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 4.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.

Half of the simulations land between <b>$262.81</b> and <b>$350.09</b>; one in ten below $232.99, one in ten above $404.90.

Does the long run make sense?

  • 10.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 10.3 times that year's EBITDA.
  • 75%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 3% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 75% on the new capital — it has earned 69% on average over the last five years.
  • 52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
The discount rate, taken apart
  1. What shareholders demand (CAPM): 5.18% risk-free + 1.00 beta × 5.0% premium = <strong>10.18%</strong>.
  2. What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.68% × (1 − 18.8%) = <strong>5.42%</strong>.
  3. Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.18%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (radio & tv broadcasting & communications equipment) first, then the rest of technology.

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Size
Revenue865.3M1.0B1.2B1.3B1.9B1.7B1.9B1.9B2.6B3.3B
Revenue growth—+17.5%+14.2%+10.6%+47.8%-10.9%+14.7%-0.6%+33.4%+27.2%
Operating income289.8M326.1M394.3M478.2M742.6M462.3M544.6M499.0M836.3M1.2B
Net income257.5M196.3M322.7M380.3M616.6M378.7M407.6M350.0M711.9M960.3M
Margins
Gross margin45.7%43.6%46.3%47.3%48.1%39.6%39.2%38.4%43.4%46.2%
Operating margin33.5%32.1%33.9%37.2%39.1%27.3%28.1%25.9%32.5%36.2%
Net margin29.8%19.3%27.8%29.6%32.5%22.4%21.0%18.1%27.7%29.3%
Free cash flow margin12.1%31.8%17.9%33.4%31.3%21.1%-8.6%27.5%24.4%27.8%
R&D ÷ revenue8.0%7.3%7.1%7.0%6.1%8.1%7.5%8.3%6.6%6.2%
SG&A ÷ revenue4.3%4.2%3.7%3.2%2.8%4.1%3.7%4.2%4.3%3.7%
Cash
Free cash flow104.8M322.9M207.6M429.7M593.7M356.8M-166.4M529.5M627.4M908.9M
Stock-based pay2.8M3.2M2.9M2.9M3.0M3.5M4.7M6.4M7.2M7.4M
Free cash flow after stock pay102.0M319.7M204.7M426.8M590.7M353.3M-171.1M523.2M620.2M901.5M
Free cash flow to the firm261.7M172.9M170.4M490.1M601.6M389.6M-544,944590.0M573.5M1.1B
Free cash flow ÷ net income0.4×1.6×0.6×1.1×1.0×0.9×-0.4×1.5×0.9×0.9×
Capex ÷ revenue0.8%0.9%4.4%2.4%1.0%0.8%1.1%0.6%0.5%0.6%
Returns
Return on invested capital30.5%25.5%56.1%113.1%127.5%97.6%47.4%51.4%80.5%66.8%
Return on equity42.8%62.2%325.0%—22844.9%——368.1%106.5%66.7%
Return on assets26.5%19.2%36.8%51.6%69.2%44.8%29.0%30.3%48.5%43.7%
Asset turnover0.9×1.0×1.3×1.7×2.1×2.0×1.4×1.7×1.8×1.5×
Economic profit174.4M122.3M273.0M367.6M579.0M352.7M358.5M330.4M645.6M815.6M
Per share
Earnings per share$3.09$2.51$4.51$5.80$9.78$6.13$6.74$5.79$11.76$15.85
Free cash flow per share$1.26$4.12$2.90$6.56$9.42$5.78$-2.75$8.76$10.37$15.01
Dividend per share$0.00$0.00$1.00$1.20$1.60$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$3.20
Payout ratio0.0%0.0%22.1%20.7%16.4%39.1%35.6%41.5%20.4%20.2%
Book value per share$7.50$4.26$1.43$-4.64$0.04$-6.34$-1.91$1.57$11.05$23.80
Diluted shares83.3M78.3M71.6M65.5M63.1M61.7M60.5M60.5M60.5M60.6M
Balance sheet
Net debt-347.6M-181.9M257.2M509.9M241.5M650.3M963.1M580.0M99.8M-522.6M
Net debt ÷ EBITDA-1.2×-0.5×0.6×1.0×0.3×1.4×1.7×1.1×0.1×-0.4×
Interest coverage——————————
Current ratio9.7×8.9×4.2×2.2×2.5×2.0×3.3×3.2×1.7×2.9×
Cash conversion cycle (days)1321191811117890212158163106
Scores
Piotroski F-score—567834664
Altman Z''11.489.327.835.628.694.286.056.828.2311.33
Beneish M—-3.114.68-2.99-1.98-2.77-0.36-3.13-1.79-2.10

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.