UI · Technology(radio & tv broadcasting & communications equipment) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-06-30
Ubiquiti Inc. reported revenue of $3.3 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 15.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 33.5% in 2017 to 36.2%, and it earned 66.8% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $4.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 62.2% went to buybacks and 25.0% to dividends; the share count fell 27.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 11.33 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20263.3B+15.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin36.2%gross margin 46.2%
Return on invested capital66.8%68.8% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay901.5M27.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash522.6M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score4/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2017Revenue 865.3MOperating income 289.8M
2018Revenue 1.0BOperating income 326.1M
2019Revenue 1.2BOperating income 394.3M
2020Revenue 1.3BOperating income 478.2M
2021Revenue 1.9BOperating income 742.6M
2022Revenue 1.7BOperating income 462.3M
2023Revenue 1.9BOperating income 544.6M
2024Revenue 1.9BOperating income 499.0M
2025Revenue 2.6BOperating income 836.3M
2026Revenue 3.3BOperating income 1.2B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+19.0%
+11.5%
+15.9%
Operating income
+29.6%
+9.8%
+16.9%
Net income
+33.1%
+9.3%
+15.7%
Earnings per share
+33.0%
+10.1%
+19.9%
Free cash flow per share
—
+9.8%
+31.7%
Dividend per share
+10.0%
+14.9%
—
Shares
+0.1%
-0.8%
-3.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%
2017Return on invested capital 30.5%
2018Return on invested capital 25.5%
2019Return on invested capital 56.1%
2020Return on invested capital 113.1%
2021Return on invested capital 127.5%
2022Return on invested capital 97.6%
2023Return on invested capital 47.4%
2024Return on invested capital 51.4%
2025Return on invested capital 80.5%
2026Return on invested capital 66.8%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2017Economic profit 174.4M
2018Economic profit 122.3M
2019Economic profit 273.0M
2020Economic profit 367.6M
2021Economic profit 579.0M
2022Economic profit 352.7M
2023Economic profit 358.5M
2024Economic profit 330.4M
2025Economic profit 645.6M
2026Economic profit 815.6M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
66.7%
Return on assets
43.7%
Asset turnover
1.49×
Research & development
6.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
3.7% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B
2017Net income 257.5MFree cash flow 104.8MAfter stock-based pay 102.0M
2018Net income 196.3MFree cash flow 322.9MAfter stock-based pay 319.7M
2019Net income 322.7MFree cash flow 207.6MAfter stock-based pay 204.7M
2020Net income 380.3MFree cash flow 429.7MAfter stock-based pay 426.8M
2021Net income 616.6MFree cash flow 593.7MAfter stock-based pay 590.7M
2022Net income 378.7MFree cash flow 356.8MAfter stock-based pay 353.3M
2023Net income 407.6MFree cash flow -166.4MAfter stock-based pay -171.1M
2024Net income 350.0MFree cash flow 529.5MAfter stock-based pay 523.2M
2025Net income 711.9MFree cash flow 627.4MAfter stock-based pay 620.2M
2026Net income 960.3MFree cash flow 908.9MAfter stock-based pay 901.5M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
4.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 5%195.7M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 25%1.0B
Share buybacks 62%2.6B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 8%330.7M
Over the same years it paid 44.1M in stock. The share count fell 27.2%. 2.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00
2017Earnings per share $3.09Free cash flow per share $1.26Dividend per share $0.00
2018Earnings per share $2.51Free cash flow per share $4.12Dividend per share $0.00
2019Earnings per share $4.51Free cash flow per share $2.90Dividend per share $1.00
2020Earnings per share $5.80Free cash flow per share $6.56Dividend per share $1.20
2021Earnings per share $9.78Free cash flow per share $9.42Dividend per share $1.60
2022Earnings per share $6.13Free cash flow per share $5.78Dividend per share $2.40
2023Earnings per share $6.74Free cash flow per share $-2.75Dividend per share $2.40
2024Earnings per share $5.79Free cash flow per share $8.76Dividend per share $2.40
2025Earnings per share $11.76Free cash flow per share $10.37Dividend per share $2.40
2026Earnings per share $15.85Free cash flow per share $15.01Dividend per share $3.20
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
60.0M70.0M80.0M90.0M
2017Diluted shares 83.3M
2018Diluted shares 78.3M
2019Diluted shares 71.6M
2020Diluted shares 65.5M
2021Diluted shares 63.1M
2022Diluted shares 61.7M
2023Diluted shares 60.5M
2024Diluted shares 60.5M
2025Diluted shares 60.5M
2026Diluted shares 60.6M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1.0B-500.0M0500.0M1.0B
2017Net debt -347.6M
2018Net debt -181.9M
2019Net debt 257.2M
2020Net debt 509.9M
2021Net debt 241.5M
2022Net debt 650.3M
2023Net debt 963.1M
2024Net debt 580.0M
2025Net debt 99.8M
2026Net debt -522.6M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.4×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.93 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
106 days collects in 34d, stock 162d, pays in 89d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
11.33safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.55 × 6.56+3.60
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.64 × 3.26+2.10
Operating income ÷ assets 0.54 × 6.72+3.62
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.90 × 1.05+2.00
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.10below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.97+0.89
Gross margin slipping 0.94+0.50
Soft assets 0.87+0.35
Sales growth 1.27+1.13
Slower depreciation 1.15+0.13
Overheads vs sales 0.86-0.15
Profit not in cash 0.01+0.07
Leverage rising 0.59-0.19
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$302.63discounted at 10.2% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
19.1×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
14.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
5.4×
Free cash flow yield
4.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today8.6B
Everything after, today9.2B
The whole business17.8B
Plus net cash522.6M
What belongs to shareholders18.3B
Divided among 60.6M shares: <strong>$302.63</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2017Reported 102.0M
2018Reported 319.7M
2019Reported 204.7M
2020Reported 426.8M
2021Reported 590.7M
2022Reported 353.3M
2023Reported -171.1M
2024Reported 523.2M
2025Reported 620.2M
2026Reported 901.5M
2027Projected 1.0B
2028Projected 1.1B
2029Projected 1.3B
2030Projected 1.4B
2031Projected 1.5B
2032Projected 1.6B
2033Projected 1.6B
2034Projected 1.7B
2035Projected 1.8B
2036Projected 1.8B
2017201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
3.7B
4.0B
4.4B
4.8B
5.2B
5.5B
5.8B
6.0B
6.3B
6.4B
Growth
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
28.4%
Free cash flow
1.0B
1.1B
1.3B
1.4B
1.5B
1.6B
1.6B
1.7B
1.8B
1.8B
Worth today
941.2M
943.9M
938.1M
923.8M
901.3M
871.2M
834.2M
791.2M
743.2M
691.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
312
330
349
372
399
9.7%
293
307
324
343
366
10.2%
275
288
303
319
338
10.7%
260
271
284
298
314
11.2%
246
256
267
279
293
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.5%
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
22.7%
221
239
257
277
299
25.6%
240
259
280
302
326
28.4%
259
280
303
327
353
31.2%
278
301
325
351
379
34.1%
297
322
348
376
406
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 4.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$232.99
Median$303.29
90th percentile$404.90
$200.00$300.00$400.00$500.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$262.81</b> and <b>$350.09</b>; one in ten below $232.99, one in ten above $404.90.
Does the long run make sense?
10.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 10.3 times that year's EBITDA.
75%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 3% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 75% on the new capital — it has earned 69% on average over the last five years.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.68% × (1 − 18.8%) = <strong>5.42%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.18%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.