EPC · Consumer staples(perfumes, cosmetics & other toilet preparations) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-09-30
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Edgewell Personal Care Co reported revenue of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 0.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 10.4% in 2018 to 4.3%, and it earned 3.0% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $684.9 million its operations generated over 10 years, 137.7% went to acquisitions and 70.5% to buybacks; the share count fell 12.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.61 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.2B-0.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin4.3%gross margin 41.6%
Return on invested capital3.0%5.0% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay16.9M0.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA6.2×net debt 1.2B
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2018Revenue 2.2BOperating income 231.8M
2019
2019Revenue 2.1BOperating income 243.8M
2020Revenue 1.9BOperating income 176.0M
2021Revenue 2.1BOperating income 239.9M
2021
2022Revenue 2.2BOperating income 182.3M
2023Revenue 2.3BOperating income 227.0M
2024Revenue 2.3BOperating income 199.3M
2025Revenue 2.2BOperating income 96.6M
2018201920192020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+0.8%
+1.3%
-0.1%
Operating income
-19.1%
-16.6%
-9.3%
Net income
-36.6%
-26.4%
-14.4%
Earnings per share
-34.0%
-24.2%
-13.1%
Free cash flow per share
+0.7%
-22.5%
-14.7%
Dividend per share
+0.4%
+5.8%
—
Shares
-3.9%
-2.9%
-1.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.7%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2018Return on invested capital 4.8%
2019
2019Return on invested capital 10.1%
2020Return on invested capital 5.1%
2021Return on invested capital 6.8%
2021
2022Return on invested capital 5.1%
2023Return on invested capital 6.1%
2024Return on invested capital 5.7%
2025Return on invested capital 3.0%
2018201920192020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-150.0M-100.0M-50.0M050.0M100.0M
2018Economic profit -86.8M
2019
2019Economic profit 61.7M
2020Economic profit -69.3M
2021Economic profit -24.9M
2021
2022Economic profit -73.4M
2023Economic profit -46.6M
2024Economic profit -57.1M
2025Economic profit -136.3M
2018201920192020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
1.6%
Return on assets
0.7%
Asset turnover
0.59×
Research & development
2.6% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
19.1% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M
2018Net income 103.3MFree cash flow 197.4MAfter stock-based pay 180.4M
2019
2019Net income -372.2MFree cash flow 132.6MAfter stock-based pay 114.8M
2020Net income 67.6MFree cash flow 184.9MAfter stock-based pay 165.7M
2021Net income 117.8MFree cash flow 172.2MAfter stock-based pay 144.9M
2021
2022Net income 99.5MFree cash flow 45.6MAfter stock-based pay 21.8M
2023Net income 114.7MFree cash flow -265.6MAfter stock-based pay -293.1M
2024Net income 98.6MFree cash flow -287.5MAfter stock-based pay -314.0M
2025Net income 25.4MFree cash flow 41.4MAfter stock-based pay 16.9M
2018201920192020202120212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
684.9M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 68%463.9M
Acquisitions 138%942.9M
Dividends 22%149.7M
Share buybacks 70%482.8M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -198%-1.4B
Over the same years it paid 183.6M in stock. The share count fell 12.7%. 299.2M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-10.00$-5.00$0.00$5.00
2018Earnings per share $1.90Free cash flow per share $3.62
2019
2019Earnings per share $-6.88Free cash flow per share $2.45Dividend per share $0.00
2020Earnings per share $1.24Free cash flow per share $3.39Dividend per share $0.00
2021Earnings per share $2.13Free cash flow per share $3.12Dividend per share $0.46
2021
2022Earnings per share $1.86Free cash flow per share $0.85Dividend per share $0.61
2023Earnings per share $2.21Free cash flow per share $-5.13Dividend per share $0.61
2024Earnings per share $1.97Free cash flow per share $-5.74Dividend per share $0.61
2025Earnings per share $0.53Free cash flow per share $0.87Dividend per share $0.62
2018201920192020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
46.0M48.0M50.0M52.0M54.0M56.0M
2018Diluted shares 54.5M
2019
2019Diluted shares 54.1M
2020Diluted shares 54.6M
2021Diluted shares 55.2M
2021
2022Diluted shares 53.6M
2023Diluted shares 51.8M
2024Diluted shares 50.1M
2025Diluted shares 47.6M
2018201920192020202120212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2018Net debt 1.0B
2019
2019Net debt 873.2M
2020Net debt 873.2M
2021Net debt 755.0M
2021
2022Net debt 1.2B
2023Net debt 1.1B
2024Net debt 1.1B
2025Net debt 1.2B
2018201920192020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
6.2×
Interest coverage
1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.76 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
97 days collects in 23d, stock 136d, pays in 62d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.61safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.11 × 6.56+0.75
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.29 × 3.26+0.94
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.17
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.70 × 1.05+0.74
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.37below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.28+1.17
Gross margin slipping 1.02+0.54
Soft assets 0.97+0.39
Sales growth 0.99+0.88
Slower depreciation 1.04+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.00-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.12
Leverage rising 1.05-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 26% against revenue growing -1%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
The effective tax rate is 7.6%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 6.2 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$26.89discounted at 7.7% a year · 61% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
50.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
13.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.1×
Free cash flow yield
1.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today957.7M
Everything after, today1.5B
The whole business2.4B
Minus net debt-1.2B
What belongs to shareholders1.3B
Divided among 47.6M shares: <strong>$26.89</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M
2018Reported 180.4M
2019
2019Reported 114.8M
2020Reported 165.7M
2021Reported 144.9M
2021
2022Reported 21.8M
2023Reported -293.1M
2024Reported -314.0M
2025Reported 16.9M
2026Projected 130.6M
2027Projected 132.7M
2028Projected 135.0M
2029Projected 137.5M
2030Projected 140.1M
2031Projected 143.0M
2032Projected 146.1M
2033Projected 149.4M
2034Projected 153.0M
2035Projected 156.8M
2018201920212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
2.3B
2.3B
2.3B
2.4B
2.4B
2.5B
2.5B
2.6B
2.6B
2.7B
Growth
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
Cash margin
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
Free cash flow
130.6M
132.7M
135.0M
137.5M
140.1M
143.0M
146.1M
149.4M
153.0M
156.8M
Worth today
121.3M
114.4M
108.1M
102.2M
96.8M
91.7M
87.0M
82.7M
78.6M
74.8M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.7%
29
33
39
46
56
7.2%
24
28
32
38
45
7.7%
20
23
27
31
37
8.2%
17
19
22
26
30
8.7%
14
16
19
22
25
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-2.5%
-0.5%
1.5%
3.5%
5.5%
4.6%
12
15
19
22
27
5.2%
15
19
23
27
32
5.8%
19
23
27
31
36
6.4%
22
26
31
36
41
6.9%
25
30
35
41
46
All the inputs moving at once
4,999 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$6.45
Median$26.84
90th percentile$57.91
$0.00$50.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$15.44</b> and <b>$41.22</b>; one in ten below $6.45, one in ten above $57.91.
Does the long run make sense?
13.7×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 13.7 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
61%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.