ELF · Consumer staples(perfumes, cosmetics & other toilet preparations) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-03-31
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e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. reported revenue of $1.6 billion in fiscal 2026. Of the $668.3 million its operations generated over 10 years, 132.1% went to acquisitions and 18.7% to buybacks. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.18 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20261.6B
Operating margin4.5%gross margin 70.7%
Return on invested capital2.4%2.4% on average over 1 years
Free cash flow after stock pay103.1M6.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.6×net debt 552.0M
Piotroski F-score3/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2018
2018Revenue 267.4MOperating income 26.2M
2019
2020Revenue 282.9MOperating income 29.9M
2021Revenue 318.1MOperating income 9.4M
2022Revenue 392.2MOperating income 29.8M
2023Revenue 578.8MOperating income 68.1M
2024Revenue 1.0BOperating income 149.7M
2025Revenue 1.3BOperating income 158.0M
2026Revenue 1.6BOperating income 73.6M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+41.4%
+38.8%
—
Operating income
+2.6%
+50.9%
—
Net income
-24.7%
+33.4%
—
Earnings per share
-26.4%
+29.9%
—
Free cash flow per share
+20.9%
+48.6%
—
Shares
+2.4%
+2.7%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.7%
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
2018
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026Return on invested capital 2.4%
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-150.0M-100.0M-50.0M0
2018
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026Economic profit -103.6M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
2.3%
Return on assets
1.1%
Asset turnover
0.68×
Overheads (SG&A)
62.7% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-50.0M050.0M100.0M150.0M200.0M
2018
2018Net income 15.5MFree cash flow 46.7MAfter stock-based pay 29.9M
2019
2020Net income 17.9MFree cash flow 34.9MAfter stock-based pay 19.4M
2021Net income 6.2MFree cash flow 23.0MAfter stock-based pay 3.3M
2022Net income 21.8MFree cash flow 14.7MAfter stock-based pay -5.0M
2023Net income 61.5MFree cash flow 100.2MAfter stock-based pay 71.0M
2024Net income 127.7MFree cash flow 62.5MAfter stock-based pay 21.9M
2025Net income 112.1MFree cash flow 115.3MAfter stock-based pay 43.5M
2026Net income 26.3MFree cash flow 190.1MAfter stock-based pay 103.1M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2026
668.3M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 12%80.9M
Acquisitions 132%882.6M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 19%125.0M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -63%-420.2M
Over the same years it paid 300.1M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00
2018
2018Earnings per share $0.32Free cash flow per share $0.95
2019
2020Earnings per share $0.35Free cash flow per share $0.69
2021Earnings per share $0.12Free cash flow per share $0.44
2022Earnings per share $0.41Free cash flow per share $0.27
2023Earnings per share $1.11Free cash flow per share $1.81
2024Earnings per share $2.21Free cash flow per share $1.08
2025Earnings per share $1.92Free cash flow per share $1.98
2026Earnings per share $0.44Free cash flow per share $3.20
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
45.0M50.0M55.0M60.0M
2018
2018Diluted shares 49.3M
2019Diluted shares 49.6M
2020Diluted shares 50.8M
2021Diluted shares 52.0M
2022Diluted shares 53.7M
2023Diluted shares 55.3M
2024Diluted shares 57.8M
2025Diluted shares 58.3M
2026Diluted shares 59.4M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2018
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026Net debt 552.0M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.6×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.35 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
132 days collects in 39d, stock 168d, pays in 74d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.18grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.19 × 6.56+1.24
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.07 × 3.26-0.21
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.21
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.89 × 1.05+0.94
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-3.26below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.11+1.02
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 1.20+0.49
Sales growth 1.25+1.11
Slower depreciation 0.92+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.06-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.08-0.36
Leverage rising 3.47-1.13
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (22M) is well below depreciation (79M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
Net debt is 3.6 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$1.14discounted at 7.7% a year · 67% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
2.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
4.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.4×
Free cash flow yield
151.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today201.9M
Everything after, today418.0M
The whole business619.9M
Minus net debt-552.0M
What belongs to shareholders67.9M
Divided among 59.4M shares: <strong>$1.14</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-50.0M050.0M100.0M150.0M
2018
2018Reported 29.9M
2019
2020Reported 19.4M
2021Reported 3.3M
2022Reported -5.0M
2023Reported 71.0M
2024Reported 21.9M
2025Reported 43.5M
2026Reported 103.1M
2027Projected 15.6M
2028Projected 19.1M
2029Projected 22.9M
2030Projected 26.9M
2031Projected 30.9M
2032Projected 34.8M
2033Projected 38.3M
2034Projected 41.2M
2035Projected 43.2M
2036Projected 44.3M
2018201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
2.0B
2.5B
3.0B
3.5B
4.1B
4.6B
5.0B
5.4B
5.7B
5.8B
Growth
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
Free cash flow
15.6M
19.1M
22.9M
26.9M
30.9M
34.8M
38.3M
41.2M
43.2M
44.3M
Worth today
14.5M
16.5M
18.3M
20.0M
21.4M
22.3M
22.8M
22.8M
22.2M
21.1M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.7%
2
3
4
6
8
7.2%
0
1
2
4
5
7.7%
-0
0
1
2
3
8.2%
-1
-1
0
1
2
8.7%
-2
-1
-1
-0
1
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
0.6%
-2
-1
-1
0
1
0.7%
-1
-0
0
1
2
0.8%
-0
0
1
2
3
0.8%
0
1
2
3
4
0.9%
1
2
3
4
5
All the inputs moving at once
4,999 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-29.60
Median$1.42
90th percentile$34.64
$-50.00$0.00$50.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$-14.23</b> and <b>$17.95</b>; one in ten below $-29.60, one in ten above $34.64.
Does the long run make sense?
1.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 1.6 times that year's EBITDA.
3%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 74% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 3% on the new capital — it has earned 2% on average over the last five years.
67%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$2.3M6 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans83%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
