ENPH · Technology(semiconductors & related devices) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Enphase Energy, Inc. reported revenue of $1.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 18.4% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -19.6% in 2016 to 10.7%, and it earned 5.8% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $2.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 52.0% went to buybacks and 12.3% back into the business; the share count rose 116.6%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.10 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 4 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.5B+18.4% a year over 9 years
Operating margin10.7%gross margin 46.6%
Return on invested capital5.8%11.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-118.2M-8.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.1×net debt 730.1M
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1B01B2B3B
2016Revenue 322.6MOperating income -63.2M
2017Revenue 286.2MOperating income -39.4M
2018Revenue 316.2MOperating income 1.6M
2019Revenue 624.3MOperating income 102.7M
2020Revenue 774.4MOperating income 186.4M
2021Revenue 1.4BOperating income 215.8M
2022Revenue 2.3BOperating income 448.3M
2023Revenue 2.3BOperating income 445.7M
2024Revenue 1.3BOperating income 77.3M
2025Revenue 1.5BOperating income 157.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-14.2%
+13.7%
+18.4%
Operating income
-29.4%
-3.3%
—
Net income
-24.3%
+5.1%
—
Earnings per share
-22.6%
+6.2%
—
Free cash flow per share
-47.2%
-12.4%
—
Shares
-2.2%
-1.0%
+9.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.2%
-300%-200%-100%0%100%
2016Return on invested capital -257.5%
2017Return on invested capital -170.3%
2018Return on invested capital 1.5%
2019Return on invested capital 5.8%
2020Return on invested capital 20.1%
2021Return on invested capital 11.7%
2022Return on invested capital 18.6%
2023Return on invested capital 16.7%
2024Return on invested capital 3.1%
2025Return on invested capital 5.8%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-100M0100M200M300M
2016Economic profit -66.4M
2017Economic profit -41.2M
2018Economic profit -6.6M
2019Economic profit -5.3M
2020Economic profit 105.2M
2021Economic profit 66.8M
2022Economic profit 242.3M
2023Economic profit 217.9M
2024Economic profit -87.1M
2025Economic profit -32.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
15.8%
Return on assets
4.9%
Asset turnover
0.42×
Research & development
12.8% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
9.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-250M0250M500M750M
2016Net income -67.5MFree cash flow -45.1MAfter stock-based pay -55.4M
2017Net income -45.2MFree cash flow -32.6MAfter stock-based pay -39.3M
2018Net income -11.6MFree cash flow 12.0MAfter stock-based pay 549,000
2019Net income 161.1MFree cash flow 124.3MAfter stock-based pay 104.1M
2020Net income 134.0MFree cash flow 195.8MAfter stock-based pay 153.3M
2021Net income 145.4MFree cash flow 299.8MAfter stock-based pay 185.5M
2022Net income 397.4MFree cash flow 698.4MAfter stock-based pay 481.6M
2023Net income 438.9MFree cash flow 586.4MAfter stock-based pay 373.5M
2024Net income 102.7MFree cash flow 480.1MAfter stock-based pay 268.7M
2025Net income 172.1MFree cash flow 95.9MAfter stock-based pay -118.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
2.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 12%339.1M
Acquisitions 11%313.9M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 52%1.4B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 24%669.7M
Over the same years it paid 1.1B in stock. The share count rose 116.6%. 370.8M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2$0$2$4$6
2016Earnings per share $-1.08Free cash flow per share $-0.72
2017Earnings per share $-0.54Free cash flow per share $-0.39
2018Earnings per share $-0.12Free cash flow per share $0.12
2019Earnings per share $1.22Free cash flow per share $0.94
2020Earnings per share $0.94Free cash flow per share $1.38
2021Earnings per share $1.02Free cash flow per share $2.10
2022Earnings per share $2.75Free cash flow per share $4.84
2023Earnings per share $3.06Free cash flow per share $4.09
2024Earnings per share $0.73Free cash flow per share $3.43
2025Earnings per share $1.28Free cash flow per share $0.71
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
50M75M100M125M150M
2016Diluted shares 62.3M
2017Diluted shares 82.9M
2018Diluted shares 99.6M
2019Diluted shares 131.6M
2020Diluted shares 141.9M
2021Diluted shares 142.9M
2022Diluted shares 144.4M
2023Diluted shares 143.3M
2024Diluted shares 140.0M
2025Diluted shares 134.9M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-0.5B00.5B1.0B1.5B
2016Net debt 6.0M
2017Net debt 3.2M
2018Net debt 3.5M
2019Net debt -145.9M
2020Net debt -348.5M
2021Net debt 918.3M
2022Net debt 817.1M
2023Net debt 1.0B
2024Net debt 933.3M
2025Net debt 730.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.1×
Interest coverage
35× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.07 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
96 days collects in 57d, stock 134d, pays in 94d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.10safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.38 × 6.56+2.51
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.06 × 3.26-0.19
Operating income ÷ assets 0.04 × 6.72+0.30
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.45 × 1.05+0.47
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.40below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.93+0.85
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.54
Soft assets 0.92+0.37
Sales growth 1.11+0.99
Slower depreciation 0.96+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.94-0.16
Profit not in cash 0.01+0.05
Leverage rising 0.91-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Inventory is growing 75% against revenue growing 11%.
Benign
Stocking up for a launch, or securing supply.
Worrying
Demand is softening; discounts or write-downs tend to follow.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (172M against 137M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
Capital spending (41M) is well below depreciation (81M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
Net debt is 3.1 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$5.40discounted at 7.2% a year · 67% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
4.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
6.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.0×
Free cash flow yield
-16.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today476.4M
Everything after, today982.1M
The whole business1.5B
Minus net debt-730.1M
What belongs to shareholders728.4M
Divided among 134.9M shares: <strong>$5.40</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200M0200M400M600M
2016Reported -55.4M
2017Reported -39.3M
2018Reported 549,000
2019Reported 104.1M
2020Reported 153.3M
2021Reported 185.5M
2022Reported 481.6M
2023Reported 373.5M
2024Reported 268.7M
2025Reported -118.2M
2026Projected 47.3M
2027Projected 53.1M
2028Projected 59.0M
2029Projected 64.8M
2030Projected 70.4M
2031Projected 75.6M
2032Projected 80.2M
2033Projected 84.2M
2034Projected 87.3M
2035Projected 89.5M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.7B
1.9B
2.1B
2.3B
2.5B
2.7B
2.8B
3.0B
3.1B
3.2B
Growth
13.5%
12.3%
11.1%
9.8%
8.6%
7.4%
6.2%
4.9%
3.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
Free cash flow
47.3M
53.1M
59.0M
64.8M
70.4M
75.6M
80.2M
84.2M
87.3M
89.5M
Worth today
44.1M
46.2M
47.9M
49.1M
49.8M
49.9M
49.4M
48.4M
46.8M
44.8M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.2%
6
7
8
10
13
6.7%
5
6
7
8
10
7.2%
4
4
5
7
8
7.7%
3
4
4
5
6
8.2%
2
3
3
4
5
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
17.5%
2.3%
2
3
4
4
5
2.5%
3
4
4
5
6
2.8%
4
5
5
6
7
3.1%
5
5
6
7
8
3.4%
5
6
7
8
10
All the inputs moving at once
4,997 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-2.86
Median$5.40
90th percentile$16.63
$0.00$20.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$0.86</b> and <b>$10.53</b>; one in ten below $-2.86, one in ten above $16.63.
Does the long run make sense?
3.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 3.8 times that year's EBITDA.
4%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 69% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 4% on the new capital — it has earned 11% on average over the last five years.
67%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$391,3923 purchase(s) by 2 insider(s)
Sold on the open market$211,4804 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.