CON · Health care(services-specialty outpatient facilities, nec) · 5 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. reported revenue of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $1.1 billion its operations generated over 5 years, 33.5% went to acquisitions and 24.2% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 7 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 1.23 is in the grey zone; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.2B
Operating margin15.4%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay186.6M8.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score4/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2021
2022Revenue 1.7BOperating income 258.5M
2023Revenue 1.8BOperating income 287.6M
2024Revenue 1.9BOperating income 304.8M
2025Revenue 2.2BOperating income 334.0M
20212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
4 yrs
Revenue
+7.9%
—
Operating income
+8.9%
—
Net income
-0.1%
—
Earnings per share
-6.9%
—
Free cash flow per share
-11.3%
—
Shares
+7.3%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
2021
2022Operating 15.0%Net 9.7%Free cash flow 13.2%
2023Operating 15.6%Net 9.8%Free cash flow 9.2%
2024Operating 16.0%Net 8.8%Free cash flow 11.1%
2025Operating 15.4%Net 7.7%Free cash flow 9.1%
20212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
20212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
42.3%
Return on assets
5.8%
Asset turnover
0.76×
Overheads (SG&A)
9.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
2021
2022Net income 166.7MFree cash flow 228.4MAfter stock-based pay 226.2M
2023Net income 179.9MFree cash flow 169.4MAfter stock-based pay 168.7M
2024Net income 166.5MFree cash flow 210.3MAfter stock-based pay 208.0M
2025Net income 166.4MFree cash flow 197.1MAfter stock-based pay 186.6M
20212022202320242025
Where 5 years of operating cash went, 2021–2025
1.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 24%257.6M
Acquisitions 33%356.0M
Dividends 4%40.0M
Share buybacks 4%37.8M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 35%371.3M
Over the same years it paid 15.6M in stock. 22.2M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00
2021
2022Earnings per share $1.61Free cash flow per share $2.20Dividend per share $0.00
2023Earnings per share $1.73Free cash flow per share $1.63Dividend per share $0.00
2024Earnings per share $1.46Free cash flow per share $1.84Dividend per share $0.07
2025Earnings per share $1.30Free cash flow per share $1.54Dividend per share $0.25
20212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
100.0M110.0M120.0M130.0M
2021
2022Diluted shares 103.8M
2023Diluted shares 104.2M
2024Diluted shares 114.2M
2025Diluted shares 128.3M
20212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.14 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 44d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.23grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.02 × 6.56+0.11
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.05 × 3.26+0.17
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.79
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.16 × 1.05+0.17
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$31.14discounted at 10.2% a year · 51% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
24.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
9.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.8×
Free cash flow yield
4.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.0B
Everything after, today2.0B
The whole business4.0B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders4.0B
Divided among 128.3M shares: <strong>$31.14</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0100.0M200.0M300.0M400.0M
2021
2022Reported 226.2M
2023Reported 168.7M
2024Reported 208.0M
2025Reported 186.6M
2026Projected 258.6M
2027Projected 277.7M
2028Projected 296.5M
2029Projected 314.8M
2030Projected 332.3M
2031Projected 348.7M
2032Projected 363.8M
2033Projected 377.4M
2034Projected 389.1M
2035Projected 398.9M
20212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
2.3B
2.5B
2.7B
2.8B
3.0B
3.2B
3.3B
3.4B
3.5B
3.6B
Growth
8.0%
7.4%
6.8%
6.2%
5.6%
4.9%
4.3%
3.7%
3.1%
2.5%
Cash margin
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
11.1%
Free cash flow
258.6M
277.7M
296.5M
314.8M
332.3M
348.7M
363.8M
377.4M
389.1M
398.9M
Worth today
234.7M
228.8M
221.8M
213.7M
204.7M
195.0M
184.7M
173.9M
162.7M
151.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
32
34
36
38
41
9.7%
30
32
33
35
38
10.2%
28
30
31
33
35
10.7%
27
28
29
31
32
11.2%
25
26
27
29
30
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
8.8%
23
24
26
29
31
10.0%
25
27
29
31
34
11.1%
27
29
31
34
36
12.2%
28
31
33
36
39
13.3%
30
33
36
39
42
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$23.31
Median$31.25
90th percentile$42.46
$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$26.68</b> and <b>$36.45</b>; one in ten below $23.31, one in ten above $42.46.
Does the long run make sense?
7.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 7.8 times that year's EBITDA.
35%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 7% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 35% on the new capital.
51%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 22.8%) = <strong>5.15%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 2 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$14.6M4 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans100%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
