ARRY · Technology(semiconductors & related devices) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Array Technologies, Inc. reported revenue of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $366.0 million its operations generated over 10 years, 147.2% went to acquisitions and 16.5% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 0.96 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.3B
Operating margin-2.3%gross margin 23.2%
Return on invested capital-11.2%-10.4% on average over 4 years
Free cash flow after stock pay64.2M5.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA-151.9×net debt 424.6M
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-0.5B00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2021
2021
2021Revenue 853.3MOperating income -24.7M
2022
2022
2022
2022Revenue 1.6BOperating income -18.1M
2023Revenue 1.6BOperating income 214.1M
2024Revenue 915.8MOperating income -227.0M
2025Revenue 1.3BOperating income -29.0M
2021202120212022202220222022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-7.8%
—
—
Free cash flow per share
-15.7%
—
—
Shares
+0.6%
—
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 5.2%
-60%-40%-20%0%20%
2021
2021
2021Return on invested capital -4.5%
2022
2022
2022
2022Return on invested capital -5.9%
2023Return on invested capital 17.6%
2024Return on invested capital -42.2%
2025Return on invested capital -11.2%
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Economic profit
Economic profit
-300M-200M-100M0100M200M
2021
2021
2021Economic profit -62.9M
2022
2022
2022
2022Economic profit -98.8M
2023Economic profit 116.5M
2024Economic profit -265.5M
2025Economic profit -76.1M
2021202120212022202220222022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
—
Return on assets
-3.6%
Asset turnover
0.88×
Research & development
0.8% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
15.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-400M-200M0200M400M
2021
2021
2021Net income -50.4MFree cash flow -266.5MAfter stock-based pay -280.3M
2022
2022
2022
2022Net income 4.4MFree cash flow 130.9MAfter stock-based pay 115.9M
2023Net income 137.2MFree cash flow 215.0MAfter stock-based pay 200.4M
2024Net income -240.4MFree cash flow 146.7MAfter stock-based pay 136.3M
2025Net income -52.2MFree cash flow 79.8MAfter stock-based pay 64.2M
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Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2021–2025
366.0M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 16%60.2M
Acquisitions 147%538.7M
Dividends 2%8.1M
Share buybacks 0%0
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -66%-241.1M
Over the same years it paid 69.2M in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$3-$2-$1$0$1$2
2021
2021
2021Earnings per share $-0.39Free cash flow per share $-2.05Dividend per share $0.06
2022
2022
2022
2022Earnings per share $0.03Free cash flow per share $0.87
2023Earnings per share $0.90Free cash flow per share $1.41
2024Earnings per share $-1.58Free cash flow per share $0.97
2025Earnings per share $-0.34Free cash flow per share $0.52
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Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
120M130M140M150M160M
2021
2021
2021Diluted shares 130.0M
2022
2022
2022
2022Diluted shares 149.8M
2023Diluted shares 152.0M
2024Diluted shares 151.8M
2025Diluted shares 152.5M
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Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0200M400M600M800M
2021Net debt 480.6M
2021Net debt 187.1M
2021Net debt 347.7M
2022Net debt 776.9M
2022Net debt 794.0M
2022Net debt 710.0M
2022Net debt 625.1M
2023Net debt 433.3M
2024Net debt 314.3M
2025Net debt 424.6M
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Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-151.9×
Interest coverage
-1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.31 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
80 days collects in 77d, stock 56d, pays in 53d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
0.96distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.34 × 6.56+2.22
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.29 × 3.26-0.95
Operating income ÷ assets -0.02 × 6.72-0.13
Equity ÷ liabilities -0.17 × 1.05-0.18
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.43below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.70+0.65
Gross margin slipping 1.40+0.74
Soft assets 1.28+0.52
Sales growth 1.40+1.25
Slower depreciation 1.87+0.21
Overheads vs sales 0.88-0.15
Profit not in cash -0.11-0.50
Leverage rising 0.94-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
The effective tax rate is -78.8%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$3.00discounted at 5.2% a year · 75% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
—
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.7×
Free cash flow yield
14.0%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today222.6M
Everything after, today659.4M
The whole business882.0M
Minus net debt-424.6M
What belongs to shareholders457.4M
Divided among 152.5M shares: <strong>$3.00</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-400M-200M0200M400M
2021
2021
2021Reported -280.3M
2022
2022
2022
2022Reported 115.9M
2023Reported 200.4M
2024Reported 136.3M
2025Reported 64.2M
2026Projected 31.7M
2027Projected 30.4M
2028Projected 29.4M
2029Projected 28.7M
2030Projected 28.2M
2031Projected 28.0M
2032Projected 28.0M
2033Projected 28.2M
2034Projected 28.7M
2035Projected 29.4M
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Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.2B
1.2B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
Growth
-5.0%
-4.2%
-3.3%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
Free cash flow
31.7M
30.4M
29.4M
28.7M
28.2M
28.0M
28.0M
28.2M
28.7M
29.4M
Worth today
30.2M
27.5M
25.2M
23.4M
21.8M
20.6M
19.6M
18.7M
18.1M
17.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.2%
3
4
6
10
17
4.7%
2
3
4
6
9
5.2%
2
2
3
4
6
5.7%
1
2
2
3
4
6.2%
1
1
1
2
3
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
2.1%
1
2
2
2
3
2.3%
2
2
2
3
4
2.6%
2
2
3
4
4
2.9%
2
3
4
4
5
3.1%
3
3
4
5
5
All the inputs moving at once
4,696 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-1.92
Median$2.72
90th percentile$10.24
$0.00$10.00$20.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$0.17</b> and <b>$6.02</b>; one in ten below $-1.92, one in ten above $10.24.
Does the long run make sense?
75%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
