SphinxRisk

Vistra Corp.

VST · Utilities (electric services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

Vistra Corp. reported revenue of $17.6 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $21.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 51.8% went back into the business and 33.7% to buybacks; the share count fell 33.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 0.04 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 17.6B  
Operating margin 10.8% gross margin —
Return on invested capital 6.7% -3.4% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay 1.2B 6.9% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA 4.6× net debt 18.1B
Piotroski F-score 6/8 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue+4.0%+10.1%—
Operating income—+4.6%—
Net income—+8.2%—
Earnings per share—+16.1%—
Free cash flow per share—-2.1%—
Dividend per share+7.4%+10.3%—
Shares-6.5%-6.8%-4.5%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital Cost of capital today · 6.3%

Economic profit

Economic profit

(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.

Return on equity
18.5%
Return on assets
2.3%
Asset turnover
0.42×
Overheads (SG&A)
9.7% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025

21.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 52% 11.3B
  • Acquisitions 16% 3.4B
  • Dividends 9% 2.0B
  • Share buybacks 34% 7.4B
  • More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -10% -2.3B

Over the same years it paid 585.0M in stock. The share count fell 33.9%. 6.8B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
4.6×
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.78 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 48d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

6of 8 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell passed
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before failed
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow passed
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before passed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

0.04distress zone
  • Working capital ÷ assets -0.06 × 6.56-0.42
  • Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.00 × 3.26-0.00
  • Operating income ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.72+0.31
  • Equity ÷ liabilities 0.14 × 1.05+0.15

Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.68below the -1.78 line
  • Receivables vs sales 0.98+0.91
  • Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
  • Soft assets 0.99+0.40
  • Sales growth 1.19+1.06
  • Slower depreciation 1.01+0.12
  • Overheads vs sales 0.90-0.15
  • Profit not in cash -0.08-0.35
  • Leverage rising 1.06-0.35

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Net debt is 4.6 times EBITDA.

Benign

A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.

Worrying

Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

%

revenue grew +10.1% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

interest expense ÷ debt = 6.3%, kept between the risk-free rate and +8 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 15.9%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

Value per share, with these assumptions $187.57 discounted at 6.3% a year · 72% of it from after year 10
$109.0980% of 4,958 simulations$345.06
Cautious $76.26 6.0% growth · 10.7% margin · 7.3% discount · 2.0% forever
Your assumptions $187.57 10.0% growth · 12.6% margin · 6.3% discount · 2.5% forever
Generous $480.15 14.0% growth · 14.5% margin · 5.3% discount · 3.0% forever

Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.

What the value implies, in the usual multiples

At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings68.7×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA21.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue4.7×
Free cash flow yield1.9%

From cash flows to a value per share

10 years of cash flow, today23.6B
Everything after, today59.3B
The whole business82.9B
Minus net debt-18.1B
What belongs to shareholders64.8B

Divided among 345.7M shares: <strong>$187.57</strong> each.

The projection next to its history

Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.

ReportedProjected
Year by year
2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
Revenue19.3B21.1B22.9B24.6B26.2B27.8B29.2B30.4B31.4B32.2B
Growth10.0%9.2%8.3%7.5%6.7%5.8%5.0%4.2%3.3%2.5%
Cash margin12.6%12.6%12.6%12.6%12.6%12.6%12.6%12.6%12.6%12.6%
Free cash flow2.4B2.7B2.9B3.1B3.3B3.5B3.7B3.8B4.0B4.1B
Worth today2.3B2.4B2.4B2.4B2.4B2.4B2.4B2.4B2.3B2.2B

If the least-known inputs move

Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.

The discount rate and growth forever

discount ↓ · forever →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.3% 196 230 275 340 441
5.8% 167 192 225 269 333
6.3% 143 163 188 220 264
6.8% 124 140 159 183 215
7.3% 108 121 136 155 179

Year-one growth and the final margin

margin ↓ · growth →6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%
10.1% 115 130 146 163 182
11.4% 132 149 167 186 207
12.6% 149 168 188 209 232
13.9% 167 187 209 232 257
15.2% 184 206 229 255 282

All the inputs moving at once

4,958 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.

Half of the simulations land between <b>$141.69</b> and <b>$255.15</b>; one in ten below $109.09, one in ten above $345.06.

Does the long run make sense?

  • 15.4×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 15.4 times that year's EBITDA.
  • Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
  • 72%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
The discount rate, taken apart
  1. What shareholders demand (CAPM): 5.18% risk-free + 1.00 beta × 5.0% premium = <strong>10.18%</strong>.
  2. What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.26% × (1 − 15.9%) = <strong>5.26%</strong>.
  3. Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>6.31%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Event 2026-09-24
Signed a material agreement; published other information
Shares 2026-09-10
New shares priced
Quarterly 2026-08-10
Quarterly report
Results 2026-08-07
Reported results
Event 2026-07-16
Signed a material agreement; took on a financial obligation
Event 2026-07-14
Published other information
Event 2026-06-30
Signed a material agreement; took on a financial obligation
Quarterly 2026-05-08
Quarterly report
Estimatein 41d
Results for the period ending 2026-09-29

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (electric services) first, then the rest of utilities.

NEE Nextera Energy IncSO Southern CoCEG Constellation Energy CorpAEP American Electric Power Co IncD Dominion Energy, IncETR Entergy CorpDUK Duke Energy CorpSRE Sempra

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Size
Revenue—9.8B—11.5B10.8B17.7B15.6B13.8B14.8B17.6B
Revenue growth————-6.0%+63.1%-11.7%-11.7%+6.9%+19.1%
Operating income—491.0M—2.0B1.5B-1.5B-1.2B2.7B4.1B1.9B
Net income—-54.0M—928.0M636.0M-1.3B-1.2B1.5B2.7B944.0M
Margins
Gross margin——————————
Operating margin—5.0%—17.3%14.0%-8.6%-7.5%19.3%27.6%10.8%
Net margin—-0.6%—8.0%5.9%-7.2%-7.8%10.8%18.0%5.4%
Free cash flow margin—9.6%—17.5%19.2%-7.0%-5.2%27.4%16.8%7.5%
R&D ÷ revenue——————————
SG&A ÷ revenue—9.5%—7.8%9.5%5.9%7.6%9.5%10.8%9.7%
Cash
Free cash flow—941.0M—2.0B2.1B-1.2B-816.0M3.8B2.5B1.3B
Stock-based pay—73.0M—47.0M65.0M47.0M63.0M77.0M100.0M113.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay—868.0M—2.0B2.0B-1.3B-879.0M3.7B2.4B1.2B
Free cash flow to the firm—1.6B—2.4B1.5B-775.9M-1.7B1.6B2.9B1.6B
Free cash flow ÷ net income—-17.4×—2.2×3.3×1.0×0.7×2.5×0.9×1.4×
Capex ÷ revenue—5.4%—6.2%11.6%5.8%8.3%12.1%14.1%15.6%
Returns
Return on invested capital—9.0%—18.3%12.7%-23.1%-26.0%10.1%15.1%6.7%
Return on equity—-0.7%—11.7%7.6%-15.4%-25.0%28.1%47.7%18.5%
Return on assets—-0.2%—3.5%2.5%-4.3%-3.7%4.5%7.0%2.3%
Asset turnover—0.4×—0.4×0.4×0.6×0.5×0.4×0.4×0.4×
Economic profit—213.8M—993.6M537.0M-2.4B-1.8B742.0M1.9B92.2M
Per share
Earnings per share—$-0.11—$1.86$1.30$-2.64$-2.90$3.98$7.54$2.73
Free cash flow per share—$1.86—$4.05$4.23$-2.57$-1.93$10.07$7.05$3.81
Dividend per share—$0.00—$0.49$0.54$0.60$0.71$0.83$0.87$0.89
Payout ratio———26.2%41.8%——21.0%11.5%32.4%
Book value per share—$15.94—$16.32$17.11$17.68$12.58$15.10$16.39$15.08
Diluted shares522.9M505.0M—499.9M491.1M482.2M422.4M375.2M352.6M345.7M
Balance sheet
Net debt—-636.0M—50.0M-406.0M-1.3B195.0M10.9B15.1B18.1B
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—-0.3×—0.0×-0.1×-5.6×0.5×2.6×2.6×4.6×
Interest coverage—0.9×—2.5×2.4×-3.9×-3.2×3.6×4.5×1.6×
Current ratio—0.9×—0.9×1.1×1.3×1.1×1.2×1.0×0.8×
Cash conversion cycle (days)——————————
Scores
Piotroski F-score—302644666
Altman Z''—0.35—0.740.980.30-0.260.850.810.04
Beneish M————-2.98-2.58-2.48-3.70-2.47-2.68

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.