TDY · Industrials(search, detection, navigation, guidance, aeronautical sys) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-28
Teledyne Technologies Inc reported revenue of $6.1 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 10.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 12.4% in 2017 to 18.8%, and it earned 7.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $6.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 83.1% went to acquisitions and 12.6% back into the business; the share count rose 30.6%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 4.86 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20256.1B+10.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin18.8%gross margin 42.8%
Return on invested capital7.2%6.7% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow1.1B17.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.4×net debt 2.1B
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2017Revenue 2.6BOperating income 321.7M
2018
2018Revenue 2.9BOperating income 416.6M
2019Revenue 3.2BOperating income 491.7M
2021Revenue 3.1BOperating income 480.1M
2022Revenue 4.6BOperating income 624.3M
2023Revenue 5.5BOperating income 972.0M
2023Revenue 5.6BOperating income 1.0B
2024Revenue 5.7BOperating income 989.1M
2025Revenue 6.1BOperating income 1.1B
2017201820182019202120222023202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+3.9%
+14.7%
+10.0%
Operating income
+5.8%
+19.1%
+15.2%
Net income
+4.3%
+17.4%
+16.5%
Earnings per share
+4.5%
+12.2%
+13.1%
Free cash flow per share
+40.0%
+9.4%
+11.2%
Shares
-0.2%
+4.6%
+3.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.0%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2017Return on invested capital 8.5%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 11.9%
2019Return on invested capital 11.7%
2021Return on invested capital 10.3%
2022Return on invested capital 4.4%
2023Return on invested capital 7.0%
2023Return on invested capital 7.7%
2024Return on invested capital 7.1%
2025Return on invested capital 7.2%
2017201820182019202120222023202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-600.0M-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M
2017Economic profit -17.8M
2018
2018Economic profit 83.7M
2019Economic profit 95.0M
2021Economic profit 48.2M
2022Economic profit -539.7M
2023Economic profit -249.5M
2023Economic profit -171.5M
2024Economic profit -238.2M
2025Economic profit -234.3M
2017201820182019202120222023202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
8.5%
Return on assets
5.9%
Asset turnover
0.40×
Research & development
5.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
15.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017Net income 227.2MFree cash flow 316.2M
2018
2018Net income 333.8MFree cash flow 360.1M
2019Net income 402.3MFree cash flow 393.7M
2021Net income 401.9MFree cash flow 547.5M
2022Net income 445.3MFree cash flow 723.0M
2023Net income 788.6MFree cash flow 394.2M
2023Net income 885.7MFree cash flow 721.2M
2024Net income 819.2MFree cash flow 1.1B
2025Net income 894.8MFree cash flow 1.1B
2017201820182019202120222023202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
6.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 13%815.2M
Acquisitions 83%5.4B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 12%756.9M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -7%-480.6M
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00
2017Earnings per share $6.26Free cash flow per share $8.71
2018
2018Earnings per share $9.02Free cash flow per share $9.73
2019Earnings per share $10.73Free cash flow per share $10.50
2021Earnings per share $10.60Free cash flow per share $14.45
2022Earnings per share $10.05Free cash flow per share $16.32
2023Earnings per share $16.53Free cash flow per share $8.26
2023Earnings per share $18.49Free cash flow per share $15.06
2024Earnings per share $17.21Free cash flow per share $23.28
2025Earnings per share $18.88Free cash flow per share $22.66
2017201820182019202120222023202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
35.0M40.0M45.0M50.0M
2017Diluted shares 36.3M
2018
2018Diluted shares 37.0M
2019Diluted shares 37.5M
2021Diluted shares 37.9M
2022Diluted shares 44.3M
2023Diluted shares 47.7M
2023Diluted shares 47.9M
2024Diluted shares 47.6M
2025Diluted shares 47.4M
2017201820182019202120222023202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2017Net debt 993.0M
2018
2018Net debt 605.0M
2019Net debt 651.1M
2021Net debt 105.4M
2022Net debt 3.6B
2023Net debt 3.3B
2023Net debt 2.6B
2024Net debt 2.0B
2025Net debt 2.1B
2017201820182019202120222023202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.4×
Interest coverage
19× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.64 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
117 days collects in 59d, stock 109d, pays in 51d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.86safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.56+0.51
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.47 × 3.26+1.52
Operating income ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.72+0.51
Equity ÷ liabilities 2.20 × 1.05+2.31
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.44below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.02+0.94
Gross margin slipping 1.00+0.53
Soft assets 1.01+0.41
Sales growth 1.08+0.96
Slower depreciation 1.03+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.96-0.16
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.09
Leverage rising 0.92-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (117M) is well below depreciation (336M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$547.02discounted at 9.0% a year · 58% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
29.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
18.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
4.6×
Free cash flow yield
4.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today11.8B
Everything after, today16.2B
The whole business28.1B
Minus net debt-2.1B
What belongs to shareholders25.9B
Divided among 47.4M shares: <strong>$547.02</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2017Reported 316.2M
2018
2018Reported 360.1M
2019Reported 393.7M
2021Reported 547.5M
2022Reported 723.0M
2023Reported 394.2M
2023Reported 721.2M
2024Reported 1.1B
2025Reported 1.1B
2026Projected 1.3B
2027Projected 1.4B
2028Projected 1.6B
2029Projected 1.8B
2030Projected 1.9B
2031Projected 2.1B
2032Projected 2.2B
2033Projected 2.3B
2034Projected 2.4B
2035Projected 2.5B
2017201820212023202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
7.0B
7.9B
8.9B
9.8B
10.7B
11.5B
12.3B
12.9B
13.4B
13.7B
Growth
14.5%
13.2%
11.8%
10.5%
9.2%
7.8%
6.5%
5.2%
3.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
Free cash flow
1.3B
1.4B
1.6B
1.8B
1.9B
2.1B
2.2B
2.3B
2.4B
2.5B
Worth today
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.1B
1.0B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.1%
567
610
660
721
794
8.6%
521
557
599
648
707
9.0%
481
512
547
588
637
9.6%
446
472
502
537
577
10.1%
415
438
464
493
527
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
10.5%
12.5%
14.5%
16.5%
18.5%
14.4%
379
414
452
492
535
16.2%
419
458
499
544
592
18.0%
459
502
547
596
648
19.8%
499
545
595
648
705
21.6%
539
589
642
700
762
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.7%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$397.01
Median$547.12
90th percentile$779.62
$400.00$600.00$800.00$1,000.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$461.02</b> and <b>$654.93</b>; one in ten below $397.01, one in ten above $779.62.
Does the long run make sense?
11.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 11.6 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
58%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.