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Try a change before you make it
Simulated on the example portfolio.
Sell 140 HLX
7,479 USD at the last known price (53.42), over 1,564 sessions up to 31 Dec 2024. Risk-free rate: 4.21%.
It moves almost exactly like what you already hold, so selling some of it reduces the bet you already placed more than it changes the mix — however different the name and the sector.
Each holding, measured the same way
Now · today's weights, Jan 2019 – Dec 2024
The change bars share one scale, in points: right of the line it rose, left of it fell. The pair of thin bars under a share runs from 0 to 100%: Now above, After below.
Now replays today's weights over the whole window; the Overview measures what was actually held, from the first trade, so its figures can differ. See the Overview ›
- The position in HLX would be closed: from 29.8% of the money to none. Learn it ›
- Its share of the risk would go from 62.4% to 0.0%: about the same share of the risk as of the money. Learn it ›
- The portfolio's annual volatility would fall from 23.2% to 13.9%, 9.30 points less. Learn it ›
- Over this same window, the worst fall from a peak would have been −23.3% instead of −35.1%. Learn it ›
- The money would be spread like 5.0 equal positions instead of 5.3. Learn it ›
- Return per unit of risk over the window: 0.53 instead of 0.49. Learn it ›
How the money is split
- KYP17.8% → 25.3%
- ARB17.0% → 24.2%
- UST 2.25% 203116.0% → 22.7%
- AUV7.2% → 10.2%
- VRD6.3% → 8.9%
- ORB-USD6.1% → 8.6%
- HLX29.8% → 0.0%
The solid curve is the most return that mixing these holdings could have given for each level of risk. Its dashed branch is the same risk for less return: starting from the least profitable holding, raising the return at first lowers the risk, because diversifying cancels variance. Point at the chart to read a split, and press a point to choose it.
7 positions. After the change the portfolio would have had 13.9% volatility and returned 11.9% a year, against 23.2% and 16.1% now. The table below lists every point of the chart and its split.
Data table
| Point | Volatility | Blended return | Blended Sharpe ratio | ARB | AUV | HLX | KYP | ORB-USD | VRD | UST 2.25% 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After | 13.9% | 9.7% | 0.39 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% | 25.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 22.7% |
| Now | 23.2% | 12.5% | 0.36 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 29.8% | 17.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 16.0% |
| Lowest risk | 5.8% | 3.1% | -0.19 | 4.9% | 14.9% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 18.4% | 58.9% |
| UST 2.25% 2031 | 7.6% | 0.9% | -0.43 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| VRD | 13.3% | 4.8% | 0.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| KYP | 30.3% | 5.5% | 0.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ARB | 20.1% | 7.1% | 0.14 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AUV | 14.2% | 8.0% | 0.27 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| HLX | 50.8% | 19.4% | 0.30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ORB-USD | 65.2% | 58.9% | 0.84 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Same risk, less return | 7.1% | 1.2% | -0.42 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 93.0% |
| Same risk, less return | 6.7% | 1.5% | -0.41 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 11.7% | 86.2% |
| Same risk, less return | 6.5% | 1.7% | -0.38 | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 80.5% |
| Same risk, less return | 6.2% | 2.0% | -0.35 | 1.1% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 15.7% | 76.2% |
| Same risk, less return | 6.1% | 2.3% | -0.31 | 2.1% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 16.3% | 71.9% |
| Same risk, less return | 5.9% | 2.6% | -0.28 | 3.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 17.0% | 67.6% |
| Same risk, less return | 5.9% | 2.8% | -0.23 | 3.9% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 17.7% | 63.2% |
| Efficient frontier | 6.4% | 5.7% | 0.23 | 5.0% | 21.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 18.9% | 49.7% |
| Efficient frontier | 7.8% | 8.2% | 0.51 | 4.1% | 28.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 19.6% | 39.4% |
| Efficient frontier | 9.7% | 10.7% | 0.67 | 3.1% | 34.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 10.1% | 20.1% | 29.1% |
| Efficient frontier | 11.9% | 13.3% | 0.76 | 2.3% | 41.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 20.4% | 18.9% |
| Efficient frontier | 14.3% | 15.8% | 0.81 | 1.4% | 48.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 17.0% | 21.1% | 8.5% |
| Efficient frontier | 16.7% | 18.3% | 0.85 | 0.2% | 54.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 20.6% | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 19.2% | 20.9% | 0.87 | 0.0% | 56.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 25.2% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 21.9% | 23.4% | 0.88 | 0.0% | 59.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 29.8% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 24.6% | 25.9% | 0.88 | 0.0% | 61.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 34.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 27.5% | 28.5% | 0.88 | 0.0% | 56.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 39.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 30.4% | 31.0% | 0.88 | 0.0% | 52.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 33.4% | 33.5% | 0.88 | 0.0% | 47.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 49.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 36.5% | 36.1% | 0.87 | 0.0% | 42.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 54.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 39.6% | 38.6% | 0.87 | 0.0% | 37.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 59.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 42.7% | 41.1% | 0.86 | 0.0% | 33.1% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 64.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 45.9% | 43.7% | 0.86 | 0.0% | 28.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 69.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 49.1% | 46.2% | 0.86 | 0.0% | 23.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 74.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 52.3% | 48.7% | 0.85 | 0.0% | 18.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 79.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 55.5% | 51.3% | 0.85 | 0.0% | 14.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 84.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 58.7% | 53.8% | 0.84 | 0.0% | 9.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 89.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efficient frontier | 61.9% | 56.3% | 0.84 | 0.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Every weight, and how these figures are made
| Symbol | Now | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARB | 17.0% | 24.2% | +7.2 pp |
| AUV | 7.2% | 10.2% | +3.0 pp |
| HLX · simulated | 29.8% | 0.0% | −29.8 pp |
| KYP | 17.8% | 25.3% | +7.5 pp |
| ORB-USD | 6.1% | 8.6% | +2.6 pp |
| VRD | 6.3% | 8.9% | +2.7 pp |
| UST 2.250% 2031-02-15 | 16.0% | 22.7% | +6.8 pp |
The thin bars under Now and After run from 0 to 100% of the portfolio. The change bars share one scale, in points: right of the line it rose, left of it fell.
Effective positions turns concentration into something readable: a portfolio with 90% in one holding and the rest spread around is equivalent to holding barely more than one position, whatever the names on it are.
Both columns are computed over the same window with the engine that produces every other figure here — the simulated portfolio is not modelled, it is measured. The correlation with the portfolio is the number that decides whether this trade diversifies or just adds more of what you already own: near 1 means it moves with the portfolio, so buying it increases the existing bet rather than spreading it. This is a simulation of consequences, not a recommendation.
This describes consequences; it is not a recommendation to buy or to sell.