Expectancy
What one closed position returned on average, wins and losses together.
In the demo portfolio
+43.5%
How it is computed here
The mean return across every completed round trip, which is the win rate and the two average sizes rolled into one figure.
Worked example
- Win rate × average win + loss rate × average loss = 0.6667 × +75.23% + 0.3333 × -19.83% = +43.5% per closed position.
Demo portfolio: four invented companies, generated prices, measured by the real engine. Past returns do not predict future ones.
Where it misleads
It weights every position equally, however much money was in it and however long it was held. A positive expectancy with the small positions winning and the large ones losing is still a portfolio losing money.