SphinxRisk

Conditional VaR

The average loss on the days that were worse than the VaR.

In the demo portfolio -3.39%

How it is computed here

The mean of every daily return below the 5th percentile, on today's market value.

Worked example

  1. Take the worst 5% of days — the ones beyond the VaR line — and average them.
  2. Their average is -3.39%: how bad the bad days are, not just where they start.

Demo portfolio: four invented companies, generated prices, measured by the real engine. Past returns do not predict future ones.

Where it misleads

This is the figure a risk committee actually looks at, because two portfolios with the same VaR can have very different catastrophes behind that line.

How much can it hurt?